Overall Rating: B

For full strategic analysis, see the mining priority. Related coverage: NIDLP, investment analysis, sector coverage.

KPI Dashboard

Progress Assessment

Mining and mineral resources has been designated a third pillar of the Saudi economy alongside oil and petrochemicals, reflecting the Kingdom’s assessment that its $1.3 trillion estimated mineral wealth represents one of the largest untapped mining opportunities globally. The B rating reflects meaningful progress in building the institutional, regulatory, and industrial infrastructure for a modern mining sector, while acknowledging that the scale of the opportunity remains largely in the development phase rather than full production.

The regulatory transformation has been fundamental. The new Mining Investment Law, enacted in 2021, modernised the licensing framework, clarified investor rights, established environmental standards, and created incentives for exploration and processing investment. Exploration licence issuance has nearly quintupled from 65 to 312, indicating rising investor interest. The Saudi Geological Survey has expanded coverage from 15 percent to 48 percent of the Kingdom’s territory, revealing deposits of gold, copper, zinc, phosphate, rare earth elements, bauxite, and other minerals with strategic economic value.

Ma’aden, the national mining champion, has expanded its operations significantly, with aluminium, phosphate, and gold production all increasing. The company’s joint ventures with international partners including Alcoa, Mosaic, and Barrick Gold bring operational expertise and capital. Mining sector GDP contribution has grown from SAR 68 billion to SAR 102 billion, a 50 percent increase that demonstrates the sector’s economic viability while highlighting the distance remaining to the SAR 176 billion target.

Key Achievements

• Mining sector GDP contribution increased 50% from SAR 68B to SAR 102B
• Exploration licences nearly quintupled from 65 to 312 under reformed licensing framework
• New Mining Investment Law enacted, modernising the regulatory environment
• Saudi Geological Survey expanded coverage from 15% to 48% of national territory
• Ma’aden aluminium complex reaching full production capacity
• Phosphate and fertiliser production expanded through Ma’aden-Mosaic joint venture
• Gold production increased through Ma’aden Barrick Gold Arabia operations
• Rare earth element deposits identified with strategic importance for energy transition
• Mining sector employment grew from 64K to 112K jobs
• Manara Minerals, PIF-backed entity, acquiring international mining assets for portfolio diversification
• Mineral processing capacity expanding beyond raw extraction to value-added products
• Mining Academy established to develop Saudi national workforce for the sector

Risks and Challenges

• Full-scale mining development timelines extend well beyond 2030 for newly identified deposits
• Infrastructure requirements for remote mining sites, including power, water, and transport, are substantial
• Environmental and water resource management in arid conditions constraining some developments
• Global commodity price volatility affecting investment case for marginal deposits
• Skilled mining workforce development limited by lack of historical industry presence
• Community relations and land use negotiations in tribal areas near mineral deposits
• Competing global mining jurisdictions with more established regulatory track records
• Processing and refining capacity building requires significant capital and technology transfer
• Rare earth and critical mineral extraction technologies still being developed for Saudi geology
• Mining sector FDI at SAR 19B against SAR 50B target requires major acceleration

Outlook

The mining sector is a genuinely long-term diversification play that will extend well beyond the 2030 programme horizon. The institutional and regulatory foundations being laid now, including the Mining Investment Law, geological survey expansion, and workforce development, are designed to enable a multi-decade development of the Kingdom’s mineral wealth. The B rating reflects appropriate recognition that mining sector transformation is a marathon rather than a sprint.

By 2030, the realistic expectation is a mining GDP contribution of SAR 130 to 150 billion, meaningful progress toward but short of the SAR 176 billion target. The more significant metric will be the exploration and development pipeline, which should indicate the sector’s trajectory for the 2030 to 2040 period. An upgrade to B+ would require mining sector FDI to cross SAR 30 billion cumulative and at least two new major mining operations, beyond existing Ma’aden assets, to reach production stage.