Current Status

On Track — Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP in absolute terms has grown significantly since 2016, reaching approximately SAR 2.1 trillion in 2024. This represents the clearest and most oil-price-independent measure of diversification progress.

Key Metrics

Trend Analysis

Absolute non-oil GDP provides the clearest lens through which to evaluate Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification. Unlike the non-oil share of GDP — which fluctuates with oil prices — the absolute value of non-oil economic output measures the actual scale of diversified economic activity. By this measure, Saudi Arabia has added approximately SAR 640 billion in non-oil GDP since 2016, a nominal increase of 44 per cent and a real increase of approximately 35 per cent. This represents one of the fastest non-oil economic expansions among major oil-exporting nations.

The growth has been broad-based rather than concentrated in a single sector. Tourism and hospitality contributed the largest incremental gains, adding an estimated SAR 180 billion in annual output. Financial services expanded by approximately SAR 80 billion, driven by mortgage market development, capital markets growth, and the expansion of fintech. Manufacturing value-added grew by approximately SAR 65 billion, supported by the NIDLP programme and localisation mandates. The technology sector, while starting from a smaller base, has been the fastest-growing in percentage terms, with the Kingdom’s ICT market now valued at over SAR 150 billion annually. Entertainment and recreation, essentially non-existent as formal economic sectors in 2016, now contribute an estimated SAR 25 billion annually.

The investment underpinning this growth has been massive. PIF has deployed over SAR 800 billion in domestic investments since 2016, much of it in non-oil sectors. Foreign direct investment in non-oil sectors has grown from approximately SAR 14 billion annually in 2016 to over SAR 30 billion. Government capital expenditure on economic diversification infrastructure — including giga-projects, economic cities, and industrial zones — has averaged over SAR 100 billion annually. The multiplier effects of these investments are now visible in employment data, business registration numbers, and sectoral output statistics.

Methodology

Non-oil GDP value is reported by the General Authority for Statistics in the quarterly national accounts bulletin. It is calculated as total GDP minus the value-added of the mining and quarrying sector (which is dominated by crude petroleum and natural gas extraction). Values are reported in both current prices and constant (2010) prices. The constant-price series eliminates the effects of inflation and provides a cleaner measure of volume growth. Sectoral breakdowns are available at the two-digit ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification) level, enabling tracking of individual non-oil sectors. Data undergoes regular revision as more complete source data becomes available, with final estimates typically published 18 months after the reference period.

Related Priorities

Non-oil GDP value is the foundational economic metric for Vision 2030. It underpins and is underpinned by multiple KPIs: Private Sector GDP Contribution (the private sector generates the majority of non-oil value), SME GDP Contribution (small businesses add incremental non-oil output), Non-Oil Exports (reflects international demand for non-oil production), and Inbound FDI (foreign investment creates new non-oil productive capacity). Employment targets are also closely linked, as non-oil GDP growth generates the private-sector jobs needed to reduce unemployment and increase Saudi workforce participation.

Outlook

Reaching SAR 2.8 trillion or more in non-oil GDP by 2030 requires a real compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.5 to 5.0 per cent from 2024 levels — consistent with the pace achieved over the past eight years. The pipeline of enabling investments supports this trajectory: giga-projects entering operational phases (NEOM, The Red Sea, Qiddiya), continued PIF portfolio expansion, maturing tourism infrastructure, and deepening financial markets.

The principal risks relate to global economic conditions that could slow investment and tourism flows, potential labour market constraints as Saudisation requirements tighten, and the execution complexity of simultaneously scaling multiple new sectors. However, the momentum is strong and the institutional commitment is clear. The Vanderbilt Portfolio projects non-oil GDP of SAR 2.6 to 3.0 trillion by 2030, suggesting the target is achievable within a reasonable probability range.