Current Status
On Track — Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP grew at approximately 4.3 per cent in real terms in 2024, maintaining the robust growth trend that has characterised the non-oil economy since the launch of Vision 2030. This rate consistently outperforms overall GDP growth and regional averages.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Growth (2016) | 0.2% |
| Growth (2018) | 2.2% |
| Growth (2019) | 3.3% |
| Growth (2020) | -2.5% (COVID) |
| Growth (2021) | 5.1% |
| Growth (2022) | 5.4% |
| Growth (2023) | 4.6% |
| Latest (2024) | 4.3% (est.) |
| Average 2017-2024 | ~4.2% |
| Target Range | 4-5% sustained |
Trend Analysis
The non-oil GDP growth rate is arguably the single most important economic indicator for evaluating Vision 2030 progress. Stripped of oil price and production volatility, it reveals the true pace of economic diversification. Since the initial adjustment year of 2016 — when non-oil growth was a sluggish 0.2 per cent as the economy absorbed fiscal consolidation measures — the non-oil economy has accelerated dramatically. By 2018, growth had recovered to 2.2 per cent, and it has sustained rates above 4 per cent in every non-pandemic year since 2021.
The sectoral decomposition of non-oil growth reveals a diversified and broadening expansion. Wholesale and retail trade, construction, and financial services have been the largest contributors in absolute terms, reflecting the real estate boom, mortgage market development, and consumer spending expansion. Tourism and hospitality have contributed the fastest marginal growth rates, with the sector expanding at over 15 per cent annually in real terms since the 2020 trough. Manufacturing has been a steady contributor, growing at approximately 4 to 5 per cent annually as import substitution and export diversification programmes take effect. The digital economy, including IT services, e-commerce, and fintech, has grown at rates exceeding 20 per cent annually from a modest base.
The consistency of non-oil growth is perhaps more notable than its pace. While oil GDP can swing from +15 per cent to -15 per cent in consecutive years (as occurred between 2022 and 2023), non-oil GDP has maintained a narrow growth corridor of 4 to 5.5 per cent in the post-pandemic period. This stability reflects the structural diversity of the non-oil economy — it is not dependent on any single sector or demand source. Consumer spending, government investment, private investment, and exports all contribute, creating a self-reinforcing growth dynamic. The employment effects are equally important: every percentage point of non-oil GDP growth generates an estimated 80,000 to 100,000 private-sector jobs, directly supporting Saudisation and unemployment reduction targets.
Methodology
Non-oil GDP growth is calculated by the General Authority for Statistics as the percentage change in real (constant 2010 prices) non-oil GDP compared with the same period in the prior year. Non-oil GDP encompasses all economic sectors except crude petroleum and natural gas extraction. It is reported quarterly as part of the national accounts, with annual consolidation. The quarterly series is seasonally adjusted to account for calendar effects including Ramadan, Hajj, and national holidays. The growth rate is published alongside sectoral breakdowns, enabling analysis of which non-oil industries are driving expansion. Cross-validation against employment data, electricity consumption, and trade statistics provides confidence in the growth estimates.
Related Priorities
Non-oil GDP growth is the engine that drives multiple Vision 2030 targets simultaneously. It generates private-sector employment (Unemployment Rate), creates the tax base for fiscal diversification (Non-Oil Revenue), attracts foreign investment (Inbound FDI), and expands the private sector’s economic role (Private Sector GDP Contribution). It also supports social outcomes: income growth from non-oil employment improves household welfare (World Happiness Index), enables home purchases (Home Ownership Rate), and funds discretionary spending (Household Cultural Spending). The NIDLP, NTP, and sector-specific programmes are all designed to sustain and accelerate non-oil growth.
Outlook
Sustaining non-oil GDP growth of 4 to 5 per cent annually through 2030 is the baseline scenario and appears well-supported by the investment pipeline. The maturation of giga-projects (NEOM beginning to generate economic output, The Red Sea welcoming tourists, Qiddiya opening entertainment facilities) adds new growth drivers that did not exist during the 2016-2024 period. Financial market deepening, including Tadawul’s growing international profile and the expansion of asset management, provides additional support. The Regional Headquarters Programme, which is attracting multinational companies to Riyadh, creates high-value service sector growth.
The risks to sustained non-oil growth include potential global economic slowdown reducing tourism and investment flows, capacity constraints in the labour market as Saudisation requirements tighten, and the challenge of maintaining fiscal investment levels if oil revenues decline. However, the breadth of the non-oil economy and the diversity of growth drivers provide substantial resilience. The Vanderbilt Portfolio projects average non-oil GDP growth of 4.0 to 5.5 per cent annually through 2030, with a high confidence that the diversification momentum will be maintained.