Current Status

Behind — Non-oil exports as a share of non-oil GDP stand at approximately 24 per cent in 2024, up from 16 per cent in 2016 but still significantly below the ambitious 50 per cent target. While absolute non-oil export values have grown substantially, the rapid expansion of the non-oil economy has moderated the ratio improvement.

Key Metrics

Trend Analysis

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil export performance presents a mixed picture: substantial absolute growth coexisting with a large gap to the percentage target. Non-oil export values have approximately doubled from SAR 155 billion in 2016 to an estimated SAR 310 billion in 2024, driven by growth in petrochemical exports (which are classified as non-oil, being manufactured products), plastics, metals, food products, and increasingly, services exports including consulting and technology.

However, the denominator — non-oil GDP — has also grown rapidly, meaning the ratio has advanced more slowly than the absolute values suggest. The 8 percentage point gain (from 16 to 24 per cent) reflects an economy that is growing its domestic non-oil activity faster than its non-oil exports, which is not necessarily problematic from a development perspective but does pose challenges for the specific 50 per cent target.

The composition of non-oil exports has diversified meaningfully. While petrochemicals and chemical products remain the largest single category (approximately 45 per cent of non-oil goods exports), their share is declining as other categories grow. Metal products, food and beverages, automotive parts, and construction materials have all expanded, reflecting the broader manufacturing sector growth. The “Made in Saudi” programme, launched in 2021, has built national brand awareness for Saudi manufactured goods in regional and international markets. Services exports — including financial services, IT services, logistics, and consulting — are growing rapidly and are increasingly captured in trade statistics.

Methodology

Non-oil exports are tracked by the General Authority for Statistics through customs declarations and balance of payments data. Goods exports are recorded at the point of customs clearance, while services exports are estimated through surveys of exporting firms and balance of payments methodology. Non-oil exports include all merchandise exports except crude petroleum and natural gas. Importantly, refined petroleum products and petrochemicals are classified as non-oil exports, as they represent manufacturing value-addition. The ratio to non-oil GDP uses current-price non-oil GDP as the denominator. Re-exports (goods imported and re-exported without substantial transformation) are excluded from the primary metric but tracked separately.

Related Priorities

Non-oil export growth reflects the international competitiveness of Saudi Arabia’s diversified economy. It connects to Non-Oil GDP targets (exports are a component of non-oil output), manufacturing development (NIDLP programme objectives), and SME internationalisation. The Saudi Export Development Authority (Saudi Exports) and the Saudi EXIM Bank provide institutional support through trade facilitation, export credit, and market development. The development of logistics infrastructure — including the Saudi Landbridge railway and expansion of port capacity — enables export growth.

Outlook

Reaching 50 per cent of non-oil GDP in non-oil exports by 2030 is among the most challenging targets in Vision 2030. The remaining 26 percentage point gap would require non-oil exports to grow at approximately 20 per cent annually while non-oil GDP grows at 5 per cent — implying a tripling of non-oil export values to approximately SAR 1 trillion by 2030. This is extremely ambitious, as explored in the oil dependency paradox analysis, and would require Saudi Arabia to achieve export intensity levels comparable with major manufacturing exporters like South Korea or Germany.

More realistically, the Vanderbilt Portfolio projects non-oil exports reaching SAR 450 to 550 billion by 2030, representing approximately 28 to 35 per cent of non-oil GDP. This would represent substantial progress and a meaningful diversification of the Kingdom’s export base, even if the 50 per cent target is not fully achieved. The maturation of manufacturing zones, the growth of services exports, and the development of new export sectors (defence equipment, renewable energy technology, digital services) provide upside potential. This KPI may be one where the target serves as an aspirational stretch goal rather than a precise endpoint, as examined in the broader non-oil exports gap analysis.