Current Status

On Track — Saudi Arabia’s life expectancy continues to improve, reflecting healthcare system expansion, preventive care initiatives, and improved chronic disease management. The Kingdom is advancing toward its target of reaching life expectancy levels comparable with leading OECD nations.

Key Metrics

Trend Analysis

Saudi Arabia’s life expectancy trajectory demonstrates steady and consistent improvement, gaining approximately 1.9 years since the 2016 baseline. The pace of roughly 0.24 years gained annually places the Kingdom’s improvement rate above the global average but modestly below the top-performing health systems in East Asia and Northern Europe. The gender gap of approximately 3.3 years (female advantage) is consistent with global patterns and has remained stable over the period.

The drivers of life expectancy improvement are concentrated in three areas. First, the dramatic expansion of healthcare infrastructure — with new hospitals, primary care centres, and specialised treatment facilities opened across all 13 regions — has improved access to care for populations previously underserved. Emergency medical response times have improved by over 30 per cent nationally since 2016. Second, the expansion of preventive care and screening programmes has enabled earlier detection and treatment of the chronic diseases — cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer — that represent the primary causes of premature mortality in Saudi Arabia. The national diabetes management programme, launched in 2019, has improved glycaemic control rates among diagnosed patients from approximately 30 per cent to over 45 per cent. Third, road safety improvements, including enhanced enforcement, vehicle safety standards, and infrastructure upgrades, have contributed to a significant reduction in traffic fatality rates.

The COVID-19 pandemic created a temporary deceleration in life expectancy gains between 2020 and 2021, consistent with global patterns. However, Saudi Arabia’s relatively effective pandemic response — characterised by rapid vaccine deployment and well-resourced hospital surge capacity — limited the impact compared with many peer nations. Post-pandemic, the improvement trajectory resumed, and 2024 estimates suggest the Kingdom has regained and exceeded the pre-pandemic trend line.

Methodology

Life expectancy at birth is calculated by the General Authority for Statistics using life table methods based on age-specific mortality rates derived from vital registration data and population estimates. The metric represents the average number of years a newborn would be expected to live if current age-specific mortality rates remained constant throughout their lifetime. Saudi Arabia’s vital registration system has improved significantly since 2016, with death registration completeness now estimated above 95 per cent, enhancing the reliability of life expectancy calculations. The World Health Organization and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) produce independent estimates that are cross-referenced for validation. Annual estimates carry a confidence interval of approximately plus or minus 0.5 years.

Related Priorities

Life expectancy is a foundational health outcome indicator that reflects the cumulative impact of healthcare system quality, public health interventions, environmental conditions, and lifestyle factors. It connects directly to the Healthcare Coverage KPI (expanded access drives survival improvements), the Healthcare Quality Index (better care quality improves outcomes), and the Youth Physical Activity target (lifestyle modification reduces chronic disease burden). The Health Sector Transformation Programme is the primary programmatic driver, with its focus on shifting from treatment-centric to prevention-oriented care models.

Outlook

Reaching 80 years of life expectancy by 2030 requires an acceleration from the current improvement pace of approximately 0.24 years gained annually to approximately 0.53 years annually over the remaining period. This represents a significant step-up and depends on breakthroughs in chronic disease management, particularly diabetes and cardiovascular disease, which account for an estimated 60 per cent of the remaining life expectancy gap to the 80-year target.

The Kingdom’s investments in genomic medicine, digital health platforms, and primary care transformation provide plausible pathways to acceleration. However, lifestyle-related risk factors — particularly obesity rates exceeding 35 per cent of the adult population and persistently high diabetes prevalence — represent structural headwinds. The Vanderbilt Portfolio’s central-case projection estimates life expectancy of 77.5 to 78.5 years by 2030, suggesting the 80-year target is ambitious and may extend into the early 2030s. Nonetheless, the directional progress is unambiguously positive and the trajectory reflects genuine health system improvement aligned with the health and wellbeing priority.