Current Status

On Track — Saudi Arabia welcomed 16.92 million foreign Umrah pilgrims in 2024, surpassing interim targets and demonstrating strong momentum toward the 2030 goal of 30 million visitors. The post-pandemic recovery has been robust, with pilgrim numbers accelerating well beyond pre-COVID levels.

Key Metrics

Trend Analysis

The trajectory of foreign Umrah pilgrim arrivals tells a story of remarkable resilience and structural transformation. From a baseline of 6.2 million in 2016, Saudi Arabia steadily expanded capacity through infrastructure investment and visa liberalisation. By 2019, numbers had climbed to approximately 8.2 million before the pandemic imposed a near-total halt in 2020 and 2021. The recovery since then has been nothing short of extraordinary, with 2024 figures reaching 16.92 million — surpassing the interim target by nearly 13 per cent.

Several structural factors underpin this acceleration. The introduction of the electronic Umrah visa system has dramatically reduced processing friction, allowing pilgrims from over 60 countries to obtain visas within minutes rather than weeks. The expansion of Haramain High-Speed Railway capacity, connecting Makkah, Madinah, and Jeddah, has improved pilgrim mobility. Hotel capacity in the Holy Cities has expanded by approximately 40 per cent since 2016, with further mega-developments under construction. The extension of Umrah visa validity to 90 days, coupled with permission to visit other Saudi cities, has encouraged longer stays and repeat visits.

The seasonal distribution of pilgrims has also shifted meaningfully. What was once concentrated around Ramadan and Hajj months is now spreading across the calendar year, aided by year-round visa availability and Saudi Arabia’s broader tourism marketing. This deseasonalisation is critical for sustaining the infrastructure utilisation rates necessary to serve 30 million visitors annually. The growth in source markets has diversified as well, with Southeast Asian and Central Asian markets expanding alongside traditional demand from the Middle East and North Africa.

Methodology

Foreign Umrah pilgrim numbers are tracked through the Ministry of Hajj and Umrah’s electronic visa issuance system and border entry records maintained by the General Authority for Statistics. The metric counts unique foreign visitors who enter Saudi Arabia on Umrah visas or who perform Umrah while holding other visa types (such as tourist or visit visas). Domestic Umrah performers are excluded from this count. Data is reported quarterly with annual consolidation, and cross-validated against airline passenger data, hotel occupancy records in the Holy Cities, and mosque attendance monitoring systems. The methodology was refined in 2022 to capture Umrah performers arriving on the new unified tourist visa, ensuring comprehensive tracking across all entry pathways.

Related Priorities

This KPI directly supports Vision 2030’s objective of enriching the pilgrim experience and expanding religious tourism as a pillar of the diversified economy. It intersects with the Three Saudi Cities in Global Top 100 target, as Makkah and Madinah’s global rankings benefit from increased international visitor flows. The KPI also connects to broader hospitality sector employment goals, with each million additional pilgrims estimated to support approximately 30,000 direct and indirect jobs. Infrastructure investments tracked under the Haramain Expansion Programme and the Doyof Al Rahman Programme are the primary enablers of capacity growth.

Outlook

Reaching 30 million foreign Umrah pilgrims by 2030 requires Saudi Arabia to nearly double current volumes within six years, implying a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10 per cent. While ambitious, this trajectory is plausible given the infrastructure pipeline. The ongoing expansion of King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, the planned new airport in Taif, and continued Haramain railway capacity increases provide the transport backbone. Hotel room supply in Makkah is projected to reach 320,000 keys by 2028, up from approximately 220,000 today.

The principal risks to target achievement relate to global economic conditions affecting discretionary religious travel, potential capacity constraints during peak seasons, and the operational complexity of managing 30 million visitors annually while maintaining service quality, as explored in the umrah 30M gap analysis. However, Saudi Arabia’s demonstrated ability to surpass interim targets, combined with the structural investments now maturing, suggests the Kingdom is well-positioned to achieve — or come very close to — the 2030 target. The Vanderbilt Portfolio’s central-case projection estimates 27 to 31 million foreign Umrah pilgrims by 2030, reflecting high confidence in this KPI’s achievement.