Gap Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Value | ~18-20% localised |
| 2030 Target | 50% of defence spending |
| Gap | ~30 percentage points |
| Required Annual Rate | ~7.5 pp per year |
| Years Remaining | 4 |
| Risk Level | High |
Analysis
Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s largest defence spenders, with annual military expenditure exceeding USD 65 billion. The Vision 2030 target to localise 50% of this spending represents both an economic diversification ambition and a strategic sovereignty objective. At baseline, the Kingdom imported the vast majority of its military equipment, with domestic defence industrial content estimated at below 5%. By 2025, localisation has risen to an estimated 18-20%, driven by the establishment of Saudi Arabian Military Industries (SAMI), the General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI), and a growing network of defence joint ventures with international partners.
The progress reflects genuine industrial development. SAMI has established subsidiaries in aeronautics, land systems, weapons and missiles, and defence electronics. Joint ventures with Lockheed Martin, Boeing, BAE Systems, Raytheon, and other international defence contractors have created local assembly, maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) capabilities. GAMI’s licensing framework has attracted over 100 domestic and international companies to the Saudi defence ecosystem.
However, the remaining 30-percentage-point gap is substantial. Defence localisation is inherently complex, requiring not just assembly but deep supply chain development, technology transfer, workforce training, and quality certification. High-value platforms such as fighter aircraft, advanced missile systems, and naval vessels require decades of capability development that cannot be compressed into a single programme cycle. Saudi Arabia’s approach has pragmatically focused on maintenance, ammunition, armoured vehicles, and electronics where localisation is achievable on shorter timelines.
Mitigation Factors
The definition of localisation is critical and can be measured in various ways. If localisation includes MRO, sustainment, and through-life support services, rather than just original equipment manufacturing, the achievable percentage increases significantly. Saudi Arabia’s defence forces require ongoing maintenance of existing platforms, and transferring these service contracts to Saudi-based entities, even if initially joint ventures with foreign partners, counts toward localisation metrics.
Offset requirements on new procurement contracts mandate minimum percentages of local content, creating a policy mechanism that systematically increases localisation with each major acquisition. The Kingdom’s planned next-generation military procurement, including naval vessels and air defence systems, includes localisation requirements exceeding 50% on individual contracts.
The development of a defence export capability would extend the value chain. SAMI has begun marketing defence products internationally, and Saudi-manufactured armoured vehicles, ammunition, and electronic warfare systems have potential in regional and emerging markets. Export revenues would further justify domestic production scale.
Risk Assessment
This target is rated High risk. The 30-percentage-point gap reflects the difficulty of building a defence industrial base in a compressed timeframe. Technology transfer restrictions, particularly from the United States under ITAR regulations, limit the depth of localisation achievable in advanced systems. Workforce development for specialised defence manufacturing roles requires years of training and experience accumulation.
The central-case projection places defence localisation at 25-35% by 2030, representing a fourfold to sevenfold increase from baseline and a genuine strategic achievement, but likely short of the 50% target. The longer-term trajectory toward higher localisation is credible as capabilities mature, but the 2030 deadline is aggressive for a target requiring deep industrial transformation.