Gap Summary

Analysis

Vision 2030’s ambition to place three Saudi cities in global top 100 liveability and competitiveness rankings reflects the broader urbanisation and quality-of-life transformation underway. Riyadh, as the capital and by far the largest Saudi city, is the most advanced candidate, having risen significantly in various global indices due to infrastructure investment, entertainment sector development, public transport expansion, and green space creation. Riyadh’s position in rankings such as the Kearney Global Cities Index and the Economist Intelligence Unit’s liveability rankings has improved, though it has not yet consistently placed in the top 100 across all major indices.

Jeddah, Saudi Arabia’s second city and Red Sea gateway, is the natural second contender. The city benefits from its coastal location, cultural heritage, and role as the gateway to Makkah. However, Jeddah faces infrastructure challenges including flood management, traffic congestion, and older urban fabric that require significant investment to resolve. The Jeddah Central project and waterfront developments aim to transform the city’s proposition, but completion timelines extend to 2030 and beyond.

The third city is less clear. Candidates include Dammam-Khobar-Dhahran in the Eastern Province, which benefits from Aramco’s economic gravity and growing cultural amenities, and potentially a giga-project city such as NEOM, which aspires to be a global city from inception. However, NEOM’s status as a city for ranking purposes by 2030 is uncertain given its development timeline. The Makkah-Madinah corridor, while globally significant for religious tourism, faces liveability criteria challenges related to extreme heat, seasonal population surges, and limited diversified economic activity.

Mitigation Factors

Riyadh’s transformation under the Riyadh Strategy 2030, overseen by the Royal Commission for Riyadh City, is comprehensive. The Riyadh Metro, one of the world’s largest urban transit projects, is nearing completion with six lines spanning 176 kilometres. The Green Riyadh initiative aims to plant millions of trees and create extensive park networks. King Salman Park, one of the world’s largest urban parks, and the Sports Boulevard are reshaping the city’s liveability credentials. These infrastructure investments directly address the criteria used by global ranking organisations.

Jeddah’s ongoing development includes the Haramain High-Speed Railway connecting it to Makkah and Madinah, waterfront regeneration, and the historic Al Balad district’s UNESCO-supported restoration. The Corniche development and new entertainment districts aim to elevate the city’s international profile.

The Regional Headquarters Programme, concentrating multinational companies in Riyadh, enhances the city’s global connectivity score, a key factor in competitiveness rankings. The growing diplomatic presence, international school infrastructure, and healthcare quality also support ranking improvements.

Risk Assessment

This target is rated Medium-High risk. Placing Riyadh in the top 100 is achievable given current investment trajectories, though specific ranking outcomes depend on methodology and the performance of competing global cities. Placing a second and third Saudi city in the top 100 is significantly more challenging, as ranking improvements require not just infrastructure investment but also cultural amenities, environmental quality, safety perceptions, and economic dynamism that take years to establish.

The central-case projection sees Riyadh entering top 100 lists across multiple indices by 2030, with Jeddah approaching but potentially falling short. A third city achieving top 100 status by 2030 is unlikely under most scenarios. The government may broaden the metric to include specialised rankings (business environment, tourism destinations, or digital readiness) where Saudi cities already perform strongly.