Non-Oil Exports on SAUDI VISION 2030 Intelligence Platform

Economic Diversification

Sun, 22 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Saudi Vision 2030 Economic Diversification

Saudi Vision 2030 economic diversification is the programme’s central test: can Saudi Arabia lift non-oil GDP, exports, private-sector output, and investment fast enough to reduce dependence on hydrocarbon revenue by 2030? The evidence is mixed but measurable. Non-oil GDP has risen from the 2016 baseline, non-oil exports have expanded, and private-sector contribution has improved, while the gap to the 65% 2030 targets remains large.

That is why diversification is not one Vision 2030 priority among many. It is the structural decoupling of the Saudi economy from oil-price cycles: every giga-project, regulatory reform, sovereign wealth fund deployment, and industrial policy instrument ultimately points toward an economy that can prosper regardless of crude prices.

Gap Alert: Non-Oil Exports Share Target

Sun, 22 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Saudi non-oil exports gap alert for the Vision 2030 KPI tracks the distance between the current non-oil export share and the 50% target for total exports.

The metric is high risk because oil prices change the denominator, while new manufacturing, mining, logistics, and defence exports need time to scale.

Gap Summary

Metric	Value
Current Value	~25% of total exports
2030 Target	50% of total exports
Gap	~25 percentage points
Required Annual Rate	~6.25 pp per year
Years Remaining	4
Risk Level	High

Analysis

The non-oil exports target is one of Vision 2030’s most structurally challenging objectives. Saudi Arabia’s export profile has been dominated by crude oil and refined petroleum products for decades, with non-oil exports historically representing approximately 16% of total exports at the programme’s launch. By 2025, non-oil exports have grown to an estimated 25% of total exports, driven by petrochemicals, plastics, minerals, food products, and a nascent manufacturing sector. However, the remaining 25-percentage-point gap to reach 50% in four years is daunting.

Non-Oil Exports — Progress Tracker

Sun, 22 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Non-Oil Exports KPI Tracker: Current Status

Behind — This non-oil exports KPI tracker shows Saudi Arabia at approximately 24 per cent of non-oil GDP in 2024, up from 16 per cent in 2016 but still far below the Vision 2030 target of 50 per cent. Absolute non-oil export values have grown substantially, but rapid non-oil GDP expansion has moderated the ratio improvement.

Key Metrics

Metric	Value
Baseline (2016)	16% of non-oil GDP
Share (2020)	18%
Share (2022)	22%
Latest (2024)	~24%
Target 2030	50%
Gap to 2030 Target	~26 percentage points
Non-Oil Export Value (2024)	SAR 310B (est.)
Top Non-Oil Exports	Petrochemicals, plastics, metals

Trend Analysis

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil export performance presents a mixed picture: substantial absolute growth coexisting with a large gap to the percentage target. Non-oil export values have approximately doubled from SAR 155 billion in 2016 to an estimated SAR 310 billion in 2024, driven by growth in petrochemical exports (which are classified as non-oil, being manufactured products), plastics, metals, food products, and increasingly, services exports including consulting and technology.

Saudi Arabia Non-Oil Exports

Sun, 22 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Saudi Arabia Non-Oil Exports KPIs

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports are a core Vision 2030 diversification KPI, measuring whether trade growth beyond crude oil is broadening into petrochemicals, minerals, manufactured goods, and services. The Kingdom has historically been one of the world’s most trade-dependent economies, but with an export profile overwhelmingly dominated by crude oil and refined petroleum products.

Export Composition

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports are dominated by petrochemical products, which represent the largest single category. The Kingdom’s petrochemical industry, anchored by Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) and a cluster of joint ventures at Jubail Industrial City, converts feedstock advantages in ethane, propane, and naphtha into exportable chemicals, plastics, fertilisers, and specialty materials. These products are shipped to markets across Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas, and Saudi petrochemical firms rank among the largest global producers in several product categories.