Saudi Leisure Tourism Is Forecast to Grow 93%. The Forecast Is Not Yet a Booking.

Saudi Arabia’s international leisure tourism is forecast to grow by 93% between 2025 and 2030, according to Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company. Its report counts 7.6 million international overnight leisure arrivals in 2025; applying 93% growth to that rounded base implies about 14.7 million in 2030. The forecast compares with projected growth of 64% for the Middle East and 30% globally, as reported by Arab News. [S1] [S7]

The projection is striking, but its denominator matters. It is not a forecast that total tourist arrivals, hotel rooms, spending or tourism GDP will rise 93%. It covers international leisure overnight arrivals over a five-year period. Saudi Arabia recorded 29.3 million inbound tourists in 2025, down 1.6% year on year, while inbound arrivals fell 13% in the first quarter of 2026. Domestic trips increased, but that is a separate market. [S2] [S3]

The forecast therefore sets a demanding test for the next phase of Vision 2030. Can Saudi Arabia turn major capital investment, new destinations, air routes and events into repeat international leisure trips—especially longer stays and higher spending—while regional security disruptions and recent arrival weakness test demand? The 93% figure is a scenario to track against realised nights, not an achievement already in hand.

Last verified: 27 September 2026.

What is actually forecast to grow

Tourism Economics says the 93% figure measures growth in international leisure overnight arrivals from 2025 to 2030. Its published baseline is 7.6 million in 2025, so the implied 2030 level is approximately 14.7 million. This is a calculation from rounded published figures, not a separate forecast disclosed to one decimal place. [S7] “International” excludes domestic trips. “Leisure” excludes other travel purposes such as business and religious travel, depending on the source’s classification. “Overnight arrivals” count visits involving an overnight stay, which is not the same as counting unique people, hotel room nights or all visits to the Kingdom.

The report also says international travel to Saudi Arabia grew by 67% between 2019 and 2025, compared with 20% across the Middle East and 5% globally. Saudi Arabia generated roughly three-quarters of regional international travel growth over the period and around 15% of global travel growth. International visitors accounted for nearly half of all nights spent in the Kingdom. [S1]

Historical growth makes the forecast possible, not certain

Those comparisons make the forecast plausible in one sense: the Kingdom has already expanded from a relatively small international leisure base, and it is gaining a larger role in regional travel. A destination starting from a lower base can record rapid percentage growth without becoming the world’s largest market. The absolute number of nights, visitor spending and local economic value remain essential context.

The spending mix is changing too. Tourism Economics reported that the share of international visitor spending generated by leisure travellers rose from 9% in 2019 to 28% in 2025 and is projected to reach 31% by 2030. [S1] This is a share of inbound visitor expenditure by purpose, not leisure’s share of all Saudi tourism spending. The distinction matters because total tourism expenditure includes domestic visitors and several travel purposes.

The table deliberately separates arrivals, overnight stays and spending. They describe related but different parts of the tourism economy. A forecast about one cannot be silently transferred to the others.

The actual starting point: a record year with a softer inbound count

The Ministry of Tourism recorded about 123 million inbound and domestic tourists in 2025. Inbound tourists numbered 29.3 million and spent SAR176.6 billion; domestic tourists numbered 93.3 million and spent SAR127.1 billion. Combined spending reached roughly SAR304 billion. [S2]

The annual total was strong, but the inbound visitor count fell 1.6% from 2024. The first-quarter 2026 data then showed a wider gap: inbound international visitors fell 13% year on year to 8.3 million, while domestic trips increased 16% to 28.9 million. The combined tourism headline rose because domestic activity offset the weaker international series. [S3]

These figures do not directly contradict Tourism Economics. They differ by time window and segment. The forecast starts from 7.6 million international leisure overnight arrivals in 2025; the Ministry’s 29.3 million count covers all inbound tourist purposes for the full year; Q1 2026 covers a single quarter and all inbound tourists. Religious, business and visiting-friends-and-relatives travel can move differently from international leisure. [S7]

Still, the latest actual data make the forecast more consequential. A 93% increase from 2025 to 2030 requires sustained expansion through the rest of the decade. A soft first quarter does not make the forecast impossible, but it raises the standard for delivery: new visitor markets, flights, events and destinations must convert into overnight international leisure travel at scale.

The spending data add nuance. Inbound tourists generated SAR176.6 billion in 2025, meaning a smaller international visitor base can have high economic weight. Growth in leisure’s share of spending could improve the mix even if total inbound arrivals grow more slowly than expected. But a higher share can arise because other categories fall, so both leisure spending in absolute terms and its proportion should be monitored.

Why leisure is the strategic next step

Saudi Arabia’s established tourism base includes religious travel. The Ministry’s DataSaudi platform reports that 14.1 million inbound tourists in 2025, or 48.3%, travelled for religious reasons; 7 million, or 24.1%, travelled for leisure. The remaining visitors included business travellers, people visiting friends and relatives, and other purposes. [S4] The Ministry’s 7 million leisure count and Tourism Economics’ 7.6 million overnight leisure estimate should be displayed as separate series until their definitions and data reconciliation are published. [S7]

That mix gives the Kingdom a strong existing demand engine, particularly around Makkah and Madinah. It also means a larger share of international leisure would broaden the tourism economy. Leisure visitors may travel to multiple regions, use resorts and entertainment, extend stays, visit cultural sites and spend across a wider supplier base.

The shift is not simply a matter of adding luxury hotels. An international leisure product depends on destination access, reliable transport, itinerary design, booking channels, service quality, visitor information, safety and the availability of activities. A visitor who wants to combine Riyadh, AlUla and the Red Sea needs flights or ground connections that align, enough nights at each destination, and a booking experience that makes a multi-stop trip straightforward.

The report’s commercial logic is that Saudi Arabia has natural, cultural and built attractions that can lengthen stays and broaden demand. Arab News reported that Tourism Economics sees nature and scenery, adventure, outdoor activities and longer-haul markets as areas of potential; it separately cited survey results from Dragon Trail International on Chinese travel agents’ interest in Saudi Arabia. [S1] The survey is useful market intelligence, not a guarantee of Chinese visitor growth.

Leisure can also create higher value per trip, but that is not automatic. A short resort stay may generate high spending per night; a budget cultural itinerary may stay longer and spend broadly among local businesses. Average expenditure varies by visitor origin, trip purpose, length of stay, hotel class and inclusion of package components. The strategic goal should be valuable, repeatable travel, not only high-end room rates.

The 93% forecast needs an assumptions audit

The Tourism Economics report publishes the 7.6 million baseline, the 93% growth forecast and additional visitor-night and spending measures. It does not publish the full model, a confidence range or a quantified downside scenario in the report reviewed here. [S7] The regional and global comparison percentages come through Arab News’ account. [S1] The forecast should therefore be attributed to its source and tested against subsequent observations.

Several assumptions will determine whether the number is reached. International air capacity must grow, and routes must connect visitors to destinations beyond the main gateways. Visa processes must remain easy to use. New attractions and accommodation must open on schedule. Regional security must permit normal travel and insurance conditions. Destination marketing must reach the right markets, and the service experience must produce positive reviews and repeat visits.

Capacity on paper is not the same as capacity visitors can buy. Airline aircraft orders do not equal delivered seats. A new hotel opening does not automatically produce occupied rooms. A resort’s announced attractions do not equal a complete visitor itinerary. The forecast depends on a chain of complementary supply reaching the market at the right time.

Price and competition matter. Saudi Arabia is competing with established destinations that have long-standing airline networks, tour operators and international visitor habits. A traveller compares total trip cost, travel time, visa friction, accommodation, food, activities and perceived risk. High-quality infrastructure can help, but visitors also need a compelling reason to select Saudi Arabia for their next holiday.

The security environment is a material variable. The country’s recent travel data were collected during a period of regional disruption, and attacks and shipping threats have affected travel confidence, airline schedules and insurance. The forecast may assume a recovery in conditions; the public summary does not provide an explicit quantified conflict adjustment. That uncertainty should be tracked, not attributed to the model without documentation.

Local reporting shows that recovery is already a policy concern. Saudi Gazette reported that GCC tourism ministers approved a joint tourism-sector recovery plan on 10 September in response to recent regional developments. [S8] The plan’s existence does not quantify lost Saudi leisure demand or invalidate Tourism Economics’ projection. It does make a conflict-and-recovery scenario more than a speculative footnote: the next test is whether inbound leisure arrivals and nights actually recover, not whether regional ministers express confidence.

The hotel pipeline is a supply-side bet

The 93% forecast sits beside a hotel pipeline of roughly 110,000 Saudi rooms under development, according to HVS data released in September. Other sources cite 105,225 rooms under construction or advanced planning and a Ministry of Tourism pipeline above 200,000 keys expected by 2030. These are different measures, not additive room counts. [S5]

If leisure demand grows rapidly, new rooms, resorts and midscale accommodation can make the forecast possible. If supply opens ahead of demand, hotels may face discounting, low occupancy or delayed phases. National totals are not enough: Riyadh corporate hotels, religious accommodation and Red Sea resorts serve different customers and seasons.

Some major destination properties have opened in 2026, demonstrating delivery. The next commercial evidence is occupancy, room rates, repeat bookings and operating performance. The expansion of hotel capacity should be assessed against arrivals and nights by city and purpose, not only against the number of announced rooms.

The quality and price mix also matter. HVS notes that luxury and upper-upscale properties form a large share of the regional supply pipeline, while Saudi Arabia is expanding its mid-market offer. A wider range of prices could enable more international visitors to stay longer and travel to several destinations. If the offer remains heavily weighted toward premium accommodation, visitor spending may rise while total overnight arrivals remain more limited.

Air connectivity is a gate, not a footnote

International leisure growth depends on seats, schedules and route economics. A destination can have substantial hotel capacity and compelling attractions but still be hard to reach from key source markets. Direct flights reduce time and uncertainty; onward domestic routes make multi-region trips feasible. Frequency matters for visitors who cannot fit their holiday around a limited weekly service.

Airline capacity also takes time to develop. Fleet delivery schedules, pilot training, airport slots, route permissions, crew bases and aircraft utilisation affect actual seat supply. Airlines will add routes when they expect sufficient demand and yields. Tourism campaigns and hotel projects cannot force that commercial calculation, though partnerships and public policy can influence it.

Domestic connectivity is particularly important to a leisure strategy based on multiple destinations. A tourist arriving in Riyadh may want to continue to AlUla, Jeddah, Abha or the Red Sea coast. If transfers are expensive or poorly timed, the visitor may choose one city rather than a longer itinerary. The economic value of a longer stay may depend on transport links as much as on a destination’s resort inventory.

Booking systems and package products matter too. International travellers often rely on online agents, tour operators or airline bundles. Clear digital information, reliable inventory and multilingual support can influence whether a potential visitor completes a booking. The Ministry’s September regulatory changes for travel services, guides, hospitality facilities and private units are relevant because they aim to clarify licences, customer duties, classifications and service requirements. [S6]

Long-haul markets can lift spending—and raise acquisition costs

Tourism Economics’ reporting points to longer-haul markets as part of the next phase. The Arab News account says that international visitors now account for nearly half of nights and that the Kingdom generated a large share of regional travel growth since 2019. It also notes separate Chinese travel-agent survey data. [S1]

Long-haul visitors may stay longer because travel costs make a brief trip less attractive. They may visit more than one region and spend more on accommodation and activities. But acquiring those travellers can be expensive. Destination marketing must compete against established tourism brands, tour-operator relationships and flight networks. Travellers require trusted information on culture, dress, payments, transport and site access.

The Chinese travel-agent survey cited by Arab News found that 52% of surveyed agents already sold Saudi Arabia and 32% viewed it as a destination with strong future potential. [S1] That is not the share of Chinese travellers who intend to visit, nor a representative forecast of arrivals. It is an indicator of distribution-channel awareness among a defined professional sample.

The product must also fit each market. European visitors may prioritise culture, nature and outdoor trips; Chinese groups may have different itinerary, language and payment needs; regional visitors may travel for short breaks. Broad market segmentation can improve conversion, but it requires consistent data and a service system capable of meeting different expectations.

Measuring success without mixing the series

The annual “tourists” total is useful for scale but insufficient for evaluating a leisure forecast. To track the 93% projection, the Ministry or an independent analyst would need to publish a consistent series of international leisure overnight arrivals, with a clear definition of arrival, purpose and overnight stay. It should identify whether one visitor making multiple trips is counted multiple times and how cruise or same-day visitors are treated.

Spending should be measured separately. Inbound receipts by purpose, origin market and trip length would show whether leisure growth creates additional foreign-exchange earnings. Average spending per arrival should be accompanied by total spending, because a higher average can coexist with fewer visitors. Hotel nights, occupancy and revenue per available room would show how demand is distributed across accommodation.

The current public numbers use several categories. The Ministry’s total inbound visitor count, DataSaudi’s purpose breakdown, Tourism Economics’ overnight-arrival forecast and hotel-industry room-night statistics are not interchangeable. Differences can arise from definitions and data collection, not necessarily errors. A public dashboard should explain the series and retain historical revisions so analysts can reproduce comparisons.

There are also distributional questions. Spending captured by international hotel brands and large developments may not translate into the same local value as spending with Saudi-owned operators, guides, restaurants and suppliers. Employment, wage levels, local procurement and small-business revenues are needed to assess the domestic economic contribution of leisure growth.

Environmental and infrastructure measures matter as well. More overnight stays increase water, energy, waste and transport demands. Coastal and heritage destinations have limits on how much development they can absorb without degrading the asset that attracts visitors. A commercially successful tourism model must preserve the natural and cultural resources that underpin its offer.

What the forecast would mean if it materialises

A 93% increase over five years implies a substantial addition to international leisure overnight arrivals. It would support more hotel capacity, airline routes, tour products and destination services. It could diversify travel receipts away from religious and business segments, spread spending across regions and create more jobs in hospitality and transport.

The effect on the 150-million-visitor target depends on definitions. That headline includes domestic and inbound visitor totals under the Ministry’s counting framework. International leisure overnight arrivals are only one subset. A strong leisure market can contribute materially without determining the entire 2030 target; conversely, the total visitor target can be reached with a different mix of domestic and religious travel even if the leisure forecast is missed.

The new market could also alter investment priorities. A larger share of leisure demand may increase the need for midscale rooms, destination transport, nature guides, event infrastructure and family-oriented activities. It may support private operators and small businesses beyond the largest state-backed projects. If the growth concentrates only in a few luxury sites, the broader employment and regional diversification effect will be narrower.

The forecast is therefore useful as a planning signal. It tells airlines, hotel developers, investors and destination authorities that international leisure is expected to become more important. It does not tell them which projects will earn returns, which routes will fill, or which local suppliers will benefit. Those answers require market-level demand and operating data.

What to watch through 2030

The first check is the next comparable annual count of international leisure overnight arrivals. It should be assessed against the 2025 baseline and disaggregated from religious, business and domestic travel. Quarterly data would show whether recovery is sustained or seasonal.

The second is foreign visitor nights and spending. If leisure arrivals rise but stays remain short or spending remains concentrated in a small number of properties, the economic effect may be different from the growth narrative. Spending by purpose and source market should be published alongside arrivals.

The third is connectivity: new direct routes, actual weekly seat capacity, domestic connections and load factors. Announced routes that do not operate or aircraft orders that are delayed should not be counted as delivered tourism capacity.

The fourth is hotel performance by destination and segment. Openings, occupancy, room rates and phased supply should be tracked against the HVS and Ministry pipelines. A national room count can mask local saturation or scarcity.

The fifth is visitor experience: repeat visits, satisfaction, complaint rates, safety, refund outcomes and quality of digital booking. The regulatory changes published in September can help set minimum standards, but their value will show in enforcement and outcomes.

The sixth is exposure to shocks. Security alerts, airspace restrictions, insurance costs and event cancellations can alter travel decisions quickly. A 2030 forecast should be reviewed as conditions change and not treated as a fixed pledge.

The assessment

Tourism Economics’ 93% projection is a meaningful signal that international leisure travel could become one of the fastest-growing parts of Saudi Arabia’s visitor economy. It is grounded in strong post-2019 growth and a shift toward longer international stays and leisure spending. It also aligns with investment in new destinations, accommodation and international connectivity.

The forecast covers international leisure overnight arrivals from a 2025 base. It does not describe total tourist counts, domestic travel, hotel-room delivery or all tourism spending. Actual data show that inbound tourism softened in 2025 and fell more sharply in Q1 2026, while domestic trips grew. That does not invalidate the forecast; it raises the execution burden.

The Kingdom must convert planned assets and projected demand into routes, nights, repeat visitors and revenue. Hotel construction is only one part of that chain. The 93% figure should be checked against a transparent annual series, compared with the forecast’s assumptions and revised as real arrivals emerge. If leisure demand reaches that scale, Saudi Arabia will have broadened the tourism economy. Until then, 93% is an ambitious forecast—and a measurable test.

Related Vision 2030 context

• Saudi Arabia has 110,000 hotel rooms in development, but delivery remains uncertain
• Saudi Arabia updated four tourism rulebooks and set transition periods
• International visitors to Saudi Arabia fell 13% in Q1 while domestic trips rose

Sources

1. [S1] Arab News, “Saudi international leisure tourism forecast to grow 93% by 2030,” 9 September 2026, reporting Tourism Economics and Dragon Trail International findings presented at WTM Spotlight Riyadh. Arab News.
2. [S2] Saudi Press Agency, Ministry of Tourism 2025 Annual Statistical Report release, 18 June 2026. SPA.
3. [S3] Vision2030.ai, “International Visitors to Saudi Arabia Fell 13%. Domestic Trips Hid It,” updated 31 July 2026. Vision2030.ai.
4. [S4] DataSaudi, Tourism sector statistics for 2025, including inbound visitor purpose. DataSaudi.
5. [S5] HVS data released ahead of FHS World 2026, distributed by The Bench through Hospitality Net, September 2026. Hospitality Net / HVS release.
6. [S6] Saudi Press Agency, Ministry of Tourism announcement on four updated tourism regulations, 11 September 2026. SPA.
7. [S7] Tourism Economics and WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: An Emerging Global Tourism Powerhouse, 2026, pp. 10–11 (PDF page 6 for the leisure baseline and forecast). Original report.
8. [S8] Saudi Gazette, “GCC states approve tourism recovery plan, back Saudi UN Tourism candidacy,” 10 September 2026. Saudi Gazette.